A model system for forecasting patronage on DRT

Demand-responsive transportation (DRT) systems represent a broad class of public transportation options characterized by spatial and/or temporal flexibility in serving demand. These systems offer the potential to provide service in lower density areas. This paper presents a model system which provides DRT system designers with a behaviorally consistent and validated patronage forecasting procedure. The model system consists of three components: a work trip demand model; a non-work trip demand model; and a DRT service model. These components are applied in an equilibrium framework.

The demand components of the system are disaggregate demand models. The work trip model forecasts modal split, while the non-work model forecasts trip frequency, time of day, mode and destination choice. The service model forecasts both wait time and ride time.

The model was estimated on data from Rochester, New York, and validated against data from Davenport, Iowa and La Habra, California. Total daily trips by DRT appear to be forecast ±20–30%. A sketch planning model was also developed and validated against six other DRT sites with errors of a similar magnitude.

The model system can analyze options such as varying the vehicle fleet or service area over the day, using differing vehicle sizes, alternate pricing policies, and improving vehicle speeds.

Autores: Steven R.Lerman, MartinFlusberg, Wayne M.Pecknold, Richard E.Nestle, Nigel H.M.Wilson

Artigo completo disponível em https://www.sciencedirect.com/